David Luthman

I looked out from the window on the 14th floor.

”What’s your vision for how the area will be in 20 years?”

That was too far ahead, but we discussed the vision for the coming 5-10 years.

You may agree with those I met with that 20 years is too far away to plan for, yet I claim that 20 years is short term.

Why?

At the time of writing this I have two daughters, 9 and 7 years of age. Looking at my eldest daughter she will graduate from 3rd grade this year.

In 6 years she will be on the last term of 9th grade and about to select her high school program, or ”gymnasieprogram” as its called here in Sweden.

Will she select a natural sciences or technical program?

(Unfortunately the statistics show that each year fewer students opt for natural sciences or technology.)

In 9 years she will be on her last semester of high school, about to apply for university studies – unless she decides to go on a sabbatical for some time, which is not at all uncommon.

Depending on what (if any) studies she chooses, in about 15 years given a sabbatical of 1 year and a 5 year Master’s program, she’ll be in her last semester in the University and likely embarking upon her Master’s Thesis.

Then it’s either out into the working life or on to a PhD.

So in 20 years is when she can realistically hold a degree, have gained some work life experience or possibly a PhD.

That’s assuming a quite straightforward path.

So to me – if we want to think about future capabilities in science, technology, and so on – 20 years is short term.

Those who will graduate from universities in 3-5 years is mostly decided already. That is those who has already made the decision and enrolled.

If anything, there will be some drop-outs, but maybe someone will also finally finish that lagging course to earn a degree.

Even in 6-8 years I’d say it has been mostly decided already, but with some higher degree of uncertainty. But looking at who applied to STEM-programs in high school we should be able to tell quite well on the outlook for 6-8 years.

Then we’ll have to back a bit further, for when the growing generation starts looking at high school programs. That puts us back yet another few years, say 8-11 years.

(This also adds the possibility of people who will do a ”basic year” or upskill through adult education.)

So sure, I can settle for something in the range of about 10 years being short term. But that’s about the shortest reasonable time frame we have to affect the coming college graduates.

Add 10 years to that, and we’ll actually have a real chance to have an impact on how STEM subjects are perceived by the generation growing up now.

Obviously we need to target people of all ages. Even adults can choose to pivot at later ages!

But we do need to paint a picture of the future further away than 5 years – that’s the projected time if you elect to start on a 5 years Master’s Program this year.

(5,5 years more likely since you have to take the decision and apply before actually starting the program. And while some manage to graduate faster, some will also drop out, and no, not everyone needs a Master’s Degree, but it’s somewhere to start the discussion.)

So, let’s look further ahead! What do we expect in 5, 10, 20 years? That’s where we should aim.

In 20 years my daughters might also be starting their families, looking for jobs and homes in attractive areas. That’s when they’re more likely to start to truly settle in. So if there’s no vision for what we want in about 20 years then I think we may well miss out on a lot of really great opportunities that takes more than 5-10 years to foster and develop.

Especially if we are to aim for immortality – then 20 years is as good as a blink of the eye.